# GIIPS Influence Diagnostics — Spread Model

## Baseline Spread Regression: Drop Individual GIIPS

| Sample | N | Countries | Z₁ Coef | SE | p-value | Sig | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full sample | 727 | 23 | 14.7280 | 12.3633 | 0.2339 |  | 0.346 |
| Drop GRC | 700 | 22 | 12.4292 | 9.4455 | 0.1887 |  | 0.444 |
| Drop ITA | 694 | 22 | 10.3374 | 12.2356 | 0.3985 |  | 0.368 |
| Drop PRT | 696 | 22 | 13.3464 | 12.1737 | 0.2733 |  | 0.357 |
| Drop ESP | 693 | 22 | 14.3312 | 13.6248 | 0.2932 |  | 0.331 |
| Drop IRL | 698 | 22 | 19.2681 | 12.2418 | 0.1160 |  | 0.392 |
| Drop all GIIPS | 573 | 18 | 11.1417 | 7.6076 | 0.1436 |  | 0.642 |
| Drop all eurozone | 370 | 12 | 22.0604 | 10.4957 | 0.0363 | ** | 0.693 |

## Rolling 10-Year Windows: Full vs Ex-GIIPS

| Window | Z₁ (Full) | Sig | Z₁ (ex-GIIPS) | Sig |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990-1999 | 37.53 | ** | 33.39 | ** |
| 1991-2000 | 17.73 |  | -6.31 |  |
| 1992-2001 | 19.45 |  | 0.32 |  |
| 1993-2002 | 18.43 |  | -3.24 |  |
| 1994-2003 | 15.58 |  | -0.63 |  |
| 1995-2004 | 21.19 | ** | 12.75 |  |
| 1996-2005 | 14.15 |  | 14.61 |  |
| 1997-2006 | 9.40 |  | 13.37 |  |
| 1998-2007 | 5.89 |  | 8.75 |  |
| 1999-2008 | 6.25 |  | 8.49 |  |
| 2000-2009 | 13.34 |  | 16.46 |  |
| 2001-2010 | 10.56 |  | 12.75 |  |
| 2002-2011 | -89.99 | ** | 14.30 |  |
| 2003-2012 | -77.08 | * | 13.65 |  |
| 2004-2013 | 18.49 |  | 4.60 |  |
| 2005-2014 | 14.34 |  | -1.16 |  |
| 2006-2015 | 8.11 |  | -5.30 |  |
| 2007-2016 | 11.32 |  | -1.84 |  |
| 2008-2017 | 10.28 |  | -8.04 |  |
| 2009-2018 | 10.69 |  | -13.00 |  |
| 2010-2019 | 25.65 |  | -5.95 |  |
| 2011-2020 | 51.63 | * | -8.10 |  |
| 2012-2021 | 71.35 | *** | -7.63 |  |
| 2013-2022 | 29.89 | * | -16.03 |  |
| 2014-2023 | 7.36 |  | -15.54 |  |
| 2015-2024 | 29.27 | * | -9.94 |  |